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Once described
as the company that helped make the Internet possible, Cisco Systems is
facing a crisis of major proportion. Layoff announcements and declining
third quarter earnings forecasts are just the tip of the iceberg for this
switching-network provider. In the past year, Cisco’s shares have
plunged 80 percent, erasing more than $400 billion in market value. How
could this shining star fall so quickly?
Contraction
Trend at Work
 Let’s
see what Cisco Systems’ astrological indicators show for the 9:30
am opening bell of the company’s first trade on the NASDAQ Exchange
back on February 16, 1990. In analyzing a stock chart, you want to observe
transiting Jupiter for potential of expansion or progress, and transiting
Saturn for potential of contraction or cutbacks. These planets will usually
give the first clues as to whether the stock will rise or fall.
Immediately
we see a difficult planetary indicator. Restrictive transiting Saturn,
which has been in the last half of Taurus this past year (April 2000 to
April 2001), made a tense, 90-degree square to Cisco’s 16 degree
Aquarius North Node (destiny) and then more recently squared the company’s
Aquarius Sun—its “self” and energy—at 27 degrees.
This could account for the significant loss of profits, stock declining
to $13 per share and the 8,500 pink slips the company recently passed
out to its employees.
The North
Node suggests the direction, path or purpose of the company. Basically,
Cisco may now face the most challenging phase of its evolution: parting
with some of its treasured but now dangerous cargo—employees and
acquired companies. Its bloated state should herald opportunity, not just
Saturnian fear.
The new business
management technique of “creative destruction”* suggests that
truly successful companies must engage in constant and serious internal
rebuilding efforts. The companies that perform best have the courage to
change their ways, and to destroy whatever stands in the way of new ideas
and new growth. Now that the Internet bubble has burst, Cisco has realized
that it cannot continue as it has, and must change or perish.
A
Change in Destiny
Cisco’s
great advance was its vision for the post-telephone network—basically
copper wire technology. It developed the architecture (symbolized by its
natal Saturn, planet of foundation and structure, in Capricorn, a sign
of building) and crucial software standards that made the Internet work.
Then it brought together the chips, wires and code into high-margin boxes
called routers (symbolized by natal Mercury, the communication planet,
in Aquarius, the sign associated with electricity and the Internet) that
few knew how to make. For years, there was no competition with what Cisco
Systems could do.
Then all
that changed. Along came fiber optics and the light wave technology, the
technology for the start of the new century. The company began being squeezed
by fiber optics from one direction and microchips from another. The problem
was that Cisco’s core interest was vested in neither. It was still
working with “old technology,” which is a contradiction in the
fast, innovative world of the Internet.
A
Look Ahead
Well, remember
that transiting Jupiter can bring progress. In May 2001, lucky Jupiter,
in the networking sign of Gemini, trines Cisco’s Aquarius North Node,
and may correlate with a remedial facet that will assist Cisco in making
progress on its path. The stock may run up a bit, too!
But one of
the most important aspects coming up in Cisco’s chart is transiting
Jupiter conjunct its natal Jupiter, at which point a twelve-year cycle
is concluded and a new one begins. Commonly referred to as the Jupiter
return, this conjunction happens in Cisco’s chart at 0 degrees Cancer
in mid-July 2001.
This will
be the stock’s first Jupiter return, so there is no history by which
to measure the possible effects. Usually a Jupiter return increases the
value of the company, but it can over-extend its liabilities also, creating
more debt.
The effect
of the Jupiter return is compounded by a solar eclipse (June 21) at 0
degrees Cancer, the spot of the Jupiter return, just weeks before the
return itself. This eclipse should put emphasis on how growth is obtained.
Expect news or announcements about the company or possibly a new product
introduced. A wild card may be played with the eclipse energy in that
acquisition or merger news may surface. The inner workings of Cisco are
active, as is the stock price, so it could potentially move higher. In
fact, it could be a considerable jump! But tread cautiously, because by
late summer or early autumn, there is more challenging news on the horizon
for this technological star that can bring its stock prices plummeting
quickly back to Earth.
Notes
*Creative
destruction: Based on the natural cycle of creation and destruction. A
term coined by Richard Foster and the title of his new book that basically
states that the financial markets relentlessly “punish” companies
that are unable to innovate and unwilling to “destroy” what’s
unproductive through spinoffs, asset sales, shutdowns, layoffs, etc. in
order to evolve and be healthy.
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