of July 29
financial and stock market panic referred to in the last couple reports may have
culminated with a bottom on the Full Moon of Wednesday, July 24. Early that day,
the Dow Jones Industrial Averages bottomed at 7532.70. By the close on Friday
the index was back up to 8264.40, an appreciation of nearly 10% in only two days.
This fits extremely well with our forecast stated in last week's column as follows:
severe decline in prices is not likely to end until the Leo-Aquarius Full Moon
period, which occurs this week, July 24-26. That is likely to be a climax of some
type, maybe even the final climax (but not necessarily, because). It doesn't appear
much better the following week, as the Sun then opposes Neptune on Thursday, August
1, followed by Venus square Saturn on Friday, August 2. After that, things might
look up, as we move towards the Sun conjunct Mars. This signature alone (within
an orb of 8 degrees) has probably a greater rate of frequency to 10% or greater
reversals in stock prices than any other signature involving planets inside the
orb of Jupiter. But the question remains: from what level?
now know the level of support is 7500. Based on this week's lunar cycles, it appears
another 4% or greater reversal is due from a peak on Monday or Tuesday. Thus we
look for another decline by the end of next week, but not necessarily from a new
low. And after that, the market could look upwards for a few weeks. But how long
might it last?
answer to this question depends upon the phasing of the 4-year (and even longer-term)
cycle(s). Astrology is good. It is very useful. But when used in conjunction with
the knowledge of cycles studies, it is even better. So let me spend a moment and
review the longer-term cycles in this column, to give you an idea of where I think
longest-term cycle I know of in the U.S. stock markets (through my own research
of the past 300+ years) is the 72-year cycle. It last bottomed in 1932. All cycles
have an orb of about 1/6 of their median length. Thus the current 72-year cycle
is due to bottom within 12 years of 2004.
cycle is comprised of either two or three sub-cycles, known as the phases of that
longer cycle. The 72-year cycle is comprised of two 36-year sub-cycles. The first
36-year cycle bottomed with the last great recession in 1974. The next is thus
due within 6 years of 2010. You can see that it overlaps the 72-year cycle between
2004 and 2016. I think the market will continue downward into this time band before
the real end to the big bear market is over.
that doesn't mean the market is straight down until then. It simply means that
before we exceed the all-time high of 11,750 again, I think we have to reach this
bottom (lower lows than we've seen so far) first. As a matter of fact, I think
a very impressive multi-month rally is ready to begineither with the low
forming now, or with one that will form between this October and next January.
the 36-year cycle are two 18-year sub-cycles, or phases. The last one occurred
during the "Great Stock Market Crash" of October 1987, just 4 months
before the Saturn-Uranus conjunction, along with the Saturn-Uranus opposition,
and is the most powerful geocosmic correlation to long-term stock market cycles.
The next one comes up in 2008-2010 (opposition), which is right in time for the
36- and 72-year cycles. The 18-year cycle is around that time too, as it is due
within 3 years of 2005. But it is possible the 18-year cycle could expand slightly,
as that phenomenon (known as "distortion") is common when a cycle coincides
with several longer-term cycles.
finally, within this current 18-year cycle are three 6-year cycle phases. The
last one occurred September 21, 2001. The next is ideally due within one year
of 2007. But again, as it will coincide with the 18-, 36- and 72-year cycles,
it might expand (distort). That's where astrology comes in, for it can more accurately
identify where these longer-term cycles, which have rather large orbs, are most
likely to culminate. Between 2008 and 2010, we will find Saturn, Uranus and Pluto
all making a great T-Square witho one another, as each begins to ingress into
cardinal signs. Hence the term "Cardinal Climax" that applies to this
period. The last time these three planets formed a T-Square to one another was
in 1930-1931, and it was at the end of cardinal signs (and beginning of fixed
signs) then as well. As Yogi Berra once said, "It's déjà vu
all over again!"
are other cycles of note, too. For instance, there is a well-documented 4-year
cycle. It's actually a 46-month cycle, with an orb of 10 months. It last bottomed
in September-October 1998 as the impeachment proceedings against President Clinton
were unfolding. The DJIA dropped to the 7400 area back then, a level that apparently
is offering some support right now (7500). This 46-month cycle is thus due to
bottom again between September 2001 and June 2003. Combine that with the mid-term
presidential election year trough, which occurs 16-25 months past a U.S. presidential
election (add from November 2000) and you can see why I think a bottom is forming
right now or with the next 13-21 week primary cycle, due in October-December 2002.
This also falls into the orb of influence of the Saturn-Pluto opposition (influence
in effect until January 2003) and the Saturn-Uranus trine, which takes place three
times starting this August. Historically, a 4-year cycle has occurred between
the first and second passage of this aspect, which again places our best bet as
October (+/- 2 months) for a final low before a substantial rally commences in
U.S. stocks to the crest of the next 4-year cycle. That rally could last 5-24
months. Most likely, it will not make a new all-time high, and once the rally
is done, another decline to lower prices than we are seeing now is likely, until
the final bottom is in between 2008 and 2010. This is not a guarantee. It is just
the roadmap I am working with, based on my current understanding of the market
and geocosmic climate.
Past results are no guarantee of future results. Therefore no guarantees are made
by either the author or publisher of this report. You are solely responsible for
any action you initiate in the market, and the author and publisher assume none
whatsoever. Information is provided with sincere intent, and according to our
own proprietary studies and methodologies.
to use this information